India’s Total Fertility Rate Drops to 1.9 in 2023; Rural TFR Reaches Replacement Level for the First Time
PakkaHyderabadi 
Visualization of India’s total fertility rate in 2023 highlighting rural areas reaching replacement level fertility for the first time
India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has further declined to 1.9 in 2023 from 2.0 the previous year, remaining well below the replacement level fertility of 2.1 births per woman, according to the latest Sample Registration System (SRS) Statistical report 2023. For the first time, the TFR for rural India has reached the replacement level of 2.1, indicating population stability in rural areas. The replacement rate implies one generation is replacing itself, balancing population growth.
The TFR represents the average number of children born to a woman during her reproductive years. Rates above 2.1 suggest population growth, while rates below indicate a potential population decline and ageing. Nationally, India reached the replacement level in 2019 and sustained a TFR of 2.0 since 2020. The Gross Reproduction Rate (GRR) in 2023 was estimated at 0.9, meaning, on average, each woman is having one daughter who survives to reproductive age to continue reproduction.
Rural India shows a slightly higher GRR at 1.0 compared to 0.7 in urban areas, illustrating a higher number of daughters in rural wards. GRR accounts for future mothers and measures the average expected female children born to a woman, based on current fertility and mortality rates. Among states, GRR ranges from 0.6 in Delhi, Bengal, and Tamil Nadu to 1.3 in Bihar.
Looking at regional variations, Bihar leads with the highest TFR among larger states at 2.8, followed by Uttar Pradesh (2.6), Madhya Pradesh (2.4), and Rajasthan (2.3). Delhi records the lowest TFR at 1.2, with Tamil Nadu and Bengal at 1.3 each. Maharashtra’s TFR stands at 1.4, while Andhra Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, Karnataka, Kerala, Punjab, and Telangana each have a TFR of 1.5.
Urban areas consistently report lower TFRs than rural locations across major states, except Kerala and Tamil Nadu, where urban TFR is comparable or slightly higher. The 2023 data shows rural women having around one child more on average than urban women, highlighting demographic and social disparities across the country.
